In the first quarter of 2016, the titanium dioxide market has experienced four distinct price increases. Take Longquan, Sichuan, a leading titanium dioxide company, as an example. Before January 8, 2016, the rutile titanium dioxide R-996 and LR-961 were quoted. 10,000 yuan / ton, today R-996, LR-961 offer 11,300 yuan / ton, the price rose 13%. The largest company in the capital market, Titanium Dioxide Enterprise, has risen from 34.65 yuan at the beginning of the year to 54.30 yuan today, up 35%. So will China's titanium dioxide market be U-shaped?

The policy is to support U-reversal. First of all, the titanium dioxide industry has already started the reform of “three go ones, one drop and one supplement”. Under the background of strong supply-side reforms in the future, the backward production capacity in the industry will be cleared and lagging behind. After the production capacity gradually withdraws from the market, the inventory of high-quality manufacturers will decline, and the company's leverage will also be reduced. At the same time, the plan will encourage the development of the chlorination process and advanced clean production of sulfuric acid process and take the route. Through the independent research and development and the introduction of cooperation, etc. to promote the development of chlorination Titanium Dioxide complete sets of production technology, so that the proportion of chlorinated products reached more than 20%. The improvement of the production process will reduce the company's costs and supplement the short-board of domestic companies in the chlorination process. If the structural reforms proceed smoothly, the titanium dioxide market will usher in a golden period.

The domestic economy also supports the U-shaped reversal. First of all, the United States has not yet raised interest rates. This is a rare opportunity for the global economy. The domestic economy in the first quarter ushered in a good start. In March, the manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, which was 1.2 percentage points higher than that in February. Since August last year, the first time it has returned to above the line, it has begun to show some positive changes. The non-manufacturing business activity index was 53.8%, which was a 1.1 percentage point increase from the previous month in February, a significant increase in the past two years. On the other hand, the total electricity consumption of the entire society was approximately 13,524 billion kWh, an increase of 3.2% year-on-year. It rose by 2.4 percentage points. In the external market, international crude oil has stabilized at US$40/ton, and is expected to hit a new high. Commodities continue to strengthen and usher in the second wave of gains. For the titanium dioxide market, another statistic is that the transaction volume of the real estate market rebounded significantly. In the first two months, the sales area and sales volume of commercial housing nationwide increased by 28.2% and 43.6%, respectively, and the growth rate was 21.7 and 29.2 percentage points higher than last year.

Is the titanium dioxide market also U-shaped? Not necessarily, it is understood that there are some downstream and traders have already objected to the rise in the price of titanium dioxide, the price rise but the demand on it? In fact, mainstream paint companies did not show significant consumption of titanium dioxide. Most businesses indicated that new orders are currently limited, and shipping pressure of the industry gradually emerged. However, since 2015, the overall profit of the titanium dioxide industry is not good, and most of the time it is in a loss state. The factory urgently needs to raise the price to turn a profit, so the rise is one after another. If the price rises less, does the market form a bubble?

The price increase in the first half of 2016 is a foregone conclusion. In the March-May market season, prices seem to continue to rise. However, after May, the market will usher in the end of the peak season and sales pressure. If the United States raises interest rates, will the domestic economy continue to land? After the stimulus of the real estate market is over, where will real estate go? After the high price of titanium dioxide market, will it fall worse? The state will fight against the current market situation, U-shaped or L-shaped defeat is not expected.

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