China's domestic oil prices will greet "two consecutive rises" before the National Day.

The reporter learned from a number of social monitoring agencies that the international crude oil market as a whole has shown a turbulent upward trend. On September 29th, the domestic retail price of refined oil products will usher in “two consecutive rises”, which may be around 130 yuan/ton.

Since the rise of domestic refined oil prices on September 15, the news in the international crude oil market has been mixed. Recently, as Iranian officials claimed that if the United States withdraws from the nuclear agreement, the country’s remarks that it can resume nuclear activities immediately when necessary, the market's risk aversion has been detonated, driving the sharp jump in oil prices. The review by the Joint Technical Committee (JTC) showed that during the eight-month period the oil-producing countries’ compliance with the production reduction agreements rose to the highest level of 116% during the year, and data released by Baker Hughes showed that the number of active drilling in the United States continued to decrease. For the crude oil market has brought more positive support. However, the US shale oil will continue to increase production, increase fuel efficiency and increase the number of electric vehicles, which will affect the demand for US gasoline. These negative factors will affect the market. Under the multi-party news game, the recent crude oil futures market fluctuates slightly, but overall it will rise.

As of September 23, Beijing time, crude oil futures for November delivery rose 0.11 US dollars, or 0.22%, to 50.66 US dollars/barrel, reaching a closing high of four months, up 0.4% last week; Brent 11 The monthly delivery of crude oil futures also closed up 0.43 US dollars, or 0.76%, to 56.86 US dollars / barrel, this week, an increase of about 2.2%, rising for four consecutive weeks.

Below this, the rate of change in crude oil extends in the positive range. According to Jinlian, as of September 25, the average price of reference crude oil is US$53.83 per barrel, with a change rate of 3.62%. The corresponding round of gasoline and diesel will increase by RMB 135/ton. The measured rate of change of crude oil was 3.98%. It is expected that the corresponding price of gasoline and diesel will be increased by 137 yuan/ton.

“Since the beginning of the pricing cycle, the overall international crude oil futures market has been oscillatingly rising. At present, the rate of change in crude oil is still at a positive high, and the market’s bullish atmosphere is becoming stronger. This round of domestic oil price increases is more likely to occur, or achieve 'two consecutive up'. "Zhang Zhuoxin, analyst at Zhuo Chuang Information Oil Products, believes.

Jin Lianchuang analyst Han Cong also judged that the market outlook, the international crude oil will remain high range fluctuate, the current round of retail prices (September 29) raised no suspense. Thanks to the boost of stocking demand before the holiday, domestic sales pressure was not strong this month. Therefore, it is expected that the domestic refined oil market will continue to operate at a high level this week, and some units that have completed sales tasks in advance may continue to push up.

Jin Lianchuang analyst Li Yang believes that the fourth quarter, with the end of the summer peak demand season, the international crude oil prices or pressure shocks down, but the latter is expected to continue to extend the production of oil-producing countries and winter heating oil and other needs boosted by the international Crude oil may resume its upward trend. From the news, there is little difference between the fourth quarter and the third quarter. As for the domestic refined oil market, with the end of the “golden nine silver and ten” peak demand season, the refined oil market consumption will gradually fade, and it will be difficult for the refined oil market in the later period to have obvious support.