Local robot market share is only 4% 3D printing doubles every year for the next 5 years

Automation, also known as electronic control or industrial control, is used in almost all places where electricity is available. In the eyes of professionals, this is almost an old industry. In fact, from agriculture, industry to services, automation is almost ubiquitous in modern work and life.

However, in the past two years, the two wealth stories of the auto industry have once again disrupted the huge capital market.

First of all, "robot mobilization" has become a trend in manufacturing development. Zoomlion began to purchase welding robots to replace expensive welding workers. Huaxi Energy – the new production line began to use a large number of industrial automation equipment. According to Foxconn's plan, the number of robots on the production line will reach 1 million units in 2014. Whether domestic manufacturing and industrial automation have already formed a "incomprehensible relationship."

Another story, 3D printing, comes from two popular discussions last year. “3D printing has the potential to revolutionize the way we produce everything,” Obama said in a State of the Union address speech on February 12. Subsequently, The Economist used the topic to discuss "the third industrial revolution brought by 3D printers."

Robot mobilization

A simple handling robot costs three years as a worker and has a life expectancy of more than 10 years. Cost-oriented technology upgrades have huge market space in China.

According to statistics, there are currently about 50,000 industrial robots in China's domestic market. From the perspective of the density of industrial robots (the number of robots per 10,000 production workers in the manufacturing industry), China's robot market is far from the developed level.

In absolute terms, the number of robots in China is only 18% in Japan and 35% in Germany. In the automotive industry where industrial robots are the most used, there are only 90 robots per 10,000 workers, and there are more than 1,600 in Japan. More than 800 units.

The industry believes that the robot industry will be an emerging large-scale high-tech industry after the automobile and computer. The “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” is a key turning point in the development of China's industrial robot industry. The market demand will also show a blowout development. The demand for industrial robots will increase at a rate of 15% to 20% per year.

"Now the average price of industrial robots in the world is more than 300,000 yuan. Even if the average price of the future is 250,000 yuan, the market size of the industrial robots corresponding to China's manufacturing industry is close to 38 billion yuan. If the system is counted, the corresponding industrial robot market will reach 114 billion. Yuan.” Lu Juan, an analyst at Guotai Junan, believes that local companies are at least tens of times more productive with the support of engineers.

Even if the long road is long, the automation story of the capital market has already culminated. On July 10, Qinchuan Development and Announcement will invest 90,000 sets (Phase I) industrial robot joint reducer technical transformation project, which has aroused strong interest in the market. The stock opened at a daily limit. Interestingly, on July 11th, the company announced that it is actively promoting the restructuring of Shaanxi Qinchuan Machine Tool Group, but the market reaction is dull, and the story of the robot is obviously more interesting than the story of restructuring.

The enthusiasm of the market is the embarrassment of domestic enterprises. There are 35 Chinese identity manufacturing companies, including 26 domestic companies. In 2012, the annual output of domestic industrial robot companies was less than 500 units. In 2012, the sales volume of local brand robots was only 11,12 units, and the sales volume of sole proprietorships and joint venture brands reached 25,790 units, with market share of 4% and 96% respectively.

Therefore, different vendors have different positioning for themselves, so they will adopt different market strategies and grasp the market segment is more important.

The machinery industry stands out, but the GEM listed companies have stood out last year. The stock price rose by 52.15% during the year, during which the net profit reached 208 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.3%, becoming a leading company in the robot industry.

"As long as the scale continues to improve and the parts and components are independently researched and developed, the gross profit margin will gradually increase. We are all doing related work in these two pieces." Robotic director Dong Liguo told the financial weekly reporter that the robot will expand more in 2013. Meta-business, in addition to strengthening cost control.

Qu Daokui, president of the company, said that the company's high-end product applications are in military use, and the flexibility and reliability of robots are more important in military industry. At present, special robots such as auto-reloading robots and heavy-duty mobile robots have obtained military-related qualification certification. The products are mainly used in high-tech arms such as the Second Artillery, Naval Air Force, etc., to improve the efficiency of weapons production and improve automation.

China’s military budget for 2012 is 670 billion yuan, of which about 250 billion yuan is estimated to be used for equipment upgrades. Assuming that the progress of military automation will accelerate in the next 10 years, the annual unmanned/automated equipment with robots as the core will account for 5% of the calculations. In the next 10 years, the demand for similar products for robotics will be about 125 billion yuan.

In addition, there are still many listed companies in the A-share market that are highly related to robotics and automation, such as Tianqi, Lanying, Sanfeng, Soft Control, Jinzi Tianzheng, etc., although the scale of the related businesses of this part of the company No robots are prominent, but the data shows that this part of the company is involved in many related fields of robots and is expected to receive more attention from market funds.

“The key to the success of local companies is five factors: profit from main business; master key core technologies; management experience in mass production; market expansion marketing capabilities; good relationship with government (especially local government), A securities analyst from Beijing told the Financial Weekly reporter that the investment logic of the capital market will also be built around these points.

3D printing: mixed fish

In fact, those engaged in robotics research are divided into two camps, one camp trying to create expensive human-like robots, and one camp trying to make cheap, practical automated robots. Since last year, the hot 3D printing technology in the world has clearly belonged to the latter.

3D printing can be divided into three categories: first, mass consumption, mostly used in industrial design, cultural creativity, etc.; second, industrial grade, mainly used in molds, models and other industries, as well as metal parts and other products; third, bioengineering Level, such as printing teeth, cells, organs, etc.

This new technology is also very popular with domestic capital. Domestic 3D printing is mainly concentrated in the fields of home appliances and consumer electronics, construction, education, mold testing, medical and dental orthodontics, cultural creativity and cultural relics restoration, automotive and other transportation, aerospace and other fields.

Looking back at history, the 3D printing industry experienced a rapid growth of more than 40% per year in the early 1990s, but then the growth rate gradually flattened; from 2000 to 2009, the global 3D printing industry achieved a compound annual growth rate of only 7.76. %, after the Internet bubble in 2001-2002, and after the financial crisis in 2009, the 3D printing industry even experienced negative growth.

However, since 2010, with the advancement of 3D printing technology and the outbreak of personal demand, the 3D printing industry has once again entered a rapid growth period, with a compound annual growth rate of more than 27% in the last three years (2010-2012).

In 2012, the global market for 3D printing was 2.204 billion US dollars, but the Chinese 3D printing market was only 1 billion yuan. However, China is expected to jump to the world's largest 3D printing market in recent years. "In the next 3-5 years, it is expected to grow at least twice as fast each year. In 2015, the market size of China's 3D printing industry will reach 10 billion yuan." Luo Jun, secretary general of China's 3D printing technology industry alliance, said that China has the potential to become a global The largest 3D printing market.

There are about 100 companies in the world engaged in the 3D printing industry, but there are more than 30 in China. At present, there are more than 20 3D printing concepts among A-share listed companies; there are 22 member stocks in the 3D printing section of Wande Information. Compared with the global market, China's 3D printing market lacks original core technology and material resources, and the overall industry volume is small, with scattered enterprises and limited social influence.

In the regular reports, special clarifications or explanations, listed companies that are engaged in R&D and project investment in 3D printing related products and services, the progress of R&D and product development is also quite different.

In the announcement on May 23 this year, Guangyunda pointed out that “the development trend of various laser application technologies has been closely monitored, and attention has been paid to 3D printing technology and related research”, “but the company has not launched 3D printing technology at present. "Products and services" are only concerned and research; Jiangnan Jiajie and Dongfang Tower also signed cooperation agreements with relevant parties in the first half of this year. Product development is about to start or just started. Gaole shares announced plans to invest 40 million yuan to set up Shenzhen in May. Branch, development of 3D printing personalized services.

Yinbang shares and Nanfeng Co., Ltd. established related subsidiaries and special project investment plans in August last year. Haiyuan Machinery signed a cooperation agreement in December last year, purchased 3D printing equipment for R&D this year, and established a subsidiary in June. Accepting the prototype order, the robot and the AVIC heavy machine had product breakthroughs and project development earlier in 2011.

From the position of intervening in the 3D printing industry chain, Yinbang and Haiyuan Machinery are mainly involved in the upstream 3D printing materials field. Robots and Jiangnan Jiajie are mainly involved in the midstream 3D printer field, AVIC Heavy Machinery, Nanfeng Co., Oriental Tower and Gao Le shares and other interventions in the field of downstream 3D printing services. Of course, this is only from the analysis and judgment of the current public information; in fact, in the future, these listed companies can fully expand the upstream and downstream of the industry chain according to market conditions and the company's actual product development progress. From the perspective of industry capacity, there is a large space for upstream materials and downstream services in the 3D printing industry in the future, and the demand space for midstream 3D printers is relatively small.

"There are only five listed companies that are substantially engaged in the manufacture and service of 3D printing related products, and will bring benefits in the short term: Yinbang, Haiyuan Machinery, Robotics, AVIC Heavy Machinery and Nanfeng." A securities analyst said.

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