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This year marks the beginning of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period. At present, various localities have successively announced the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†recommendations. Several provinces and districts have explicitly stated that major economic indicators such as GDP or per capita GDP will reach 10%, 12%, and 13%. The goal of doubling in five years.
Many proposed higher GDP growth targets. According to the recommendations of the 12th Five-Year Plan of 31 provinces and cities organized by the reporter yesterday, except for Qinghai, other regions have announced the “12th Five-Year Plan†proposals and basics for national economic and social development. Description or basic idea. Among them, Heilongjiang, Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Jiangxi, Anhui, Shanxi, Fujian and Yunnan all proposed the goal of doubling the total GDP and even per capita GDP for five years.
There are also some provinces and cities that have proposed "quantitative" development goals, and the economic growth is positioned at 8%~13%. For example, Hainan proposed that in the next five years, the province’s gross domestic product will grow at an average annual rate of about 13%, and the average per capita GDP will increase by about 12% annually. Jiangsu determines that the province’s economy will grow at an average annual rate of about 10% during the “Twelve Five Years†period. The higher GDP targets include Chongqing and Hubei provinces.
In addition, some provinces and cities have relatively vaguely put forward such objectives as “main economic indicators increase to maintain the nation’s forefront†and “main development indicators continue to maintain growth rates higher than the national averageâ€, such as Tianjin and Inner Mongolia. However, these are mostly provincial and urban areas where local economic growth has been growing rapidly in recent years. The total economic growth rate is 15% to 20%.
Other provinces and cities did not mention specific quantitative GDP targets, including Beijing, Liaoning and Shandong. However, informed sources disclosed to reporters that Beijing’s “12th Five-Year†GDP target has not yet been proposed. It is believed that the Beijing “two sessions†will be disclosed in the middle of this month.
Experts: The assessment system needs to be changed. Compared with the impulse of GDP growth that cannot be curbed by local governments, the “Proposal for the CPC Central Committee on Formulating the Twelfth Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development†passed by the Fifth Plenary Session of the 17th CPC Central Committee in October last year did not. The specific requirements for the “12th Five-Year Plan†indicator have weakened the overall GDP target, which is considered to be an important signal for China’s accelerated transformation.
The impact of weakening GDP is considered to be the key to transforming the economic development mode. The Central Government has made clear that major advances must be made in the strategic adjustment of the economic structure in the next five years, but the targets thrown out by various localities seem to contradict the difficulties of China's development and transformation.
Professor Huo Deming of the Peking University Center for Economic Research said in an interview with reporters that the GDP target is a report card set by the local government. As long as the growth rate of GDP is not weakened in the evaluation index system, there is no reason to ease the impact of local GDP growth. He suggested limiting at least two assessment targets and forcing local governments to weaken economic growth targets through weights, such as limiting more specific energy-saving emission reduction targets, and even determining the total energy control targets.
Hu Angang, a well-known expert who participated in the preparation of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†study and director of the National Conditions Research Center of Tsinghua University, pointed out that if the tendency of curbing local government is not timely controlled, the layered effects of economic growth in the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†will only be more After the 11th Five-Year Plan is over, the goal of changing the mode of economic development may also fail.
Local 12th Five-Year Plan GDP Is Still Highly Heated
The impulse of local governments to pursue GDP growth is testing the theme of China's “12th Five-Year Plan†economic development “adjusting structure and promoting transformationâ€.