Since the beginning of this year, the price level has continued to rise, mainly driven by the price of food. By July, it had reached a three-year high, close to the level before the 2008 international financial crisis. To stabilize prices, or to retreat at high levels, the harvest of agricultural products such as rice, wheat, and fruits is undoubtedly a more powerful bargaining chip. Jiangxi is one of the main grain producing areas in China, and it is also one of the two provinces that have continuously provided commodity grain to the country since the founding of New China. Each year, it transports about 5 billion kilograms of rice from the province. After experiencing rare droughts in spring and summer, and drastic changes in droughts and floods in June, what is the agricultural situation in this province this year? From the good news from the Jiangxi Provincial Department of Agriculture, early rice, fruits, etc. achieved a great harvest, and agriculture basically increased production. Why can we achieve such a good agricultural harvest in the disaster year? How will agricultural harvest affect prices? Reporters went to the fields and related departments for in-depth interviews.

On August 12th, the reporter went to Zuli Village, Shijie Town, Xinjian County. He smelled the scent of sesame blossoms. The villagers were piled with peanuts harvested from the ground in front of their homes. In the paddy field, it was planted two nights ago and she looked ahead at the green one. There are citrus trees on the hills, and the blue fruits are full of branches.

At the villager Cheng Chunbao’s home, a house was piled up with the harvested early rice. The family took care of the peanuts and picked them off to dry the sun. “When the early rice was planted this year, the water in the farmland was very tight. However, after pumping irrigation, all 8 acres of fields were planted with seedlings. Although there was little rain in the later period, the early rice planting was not very dry, and there was no dry land. The seedlings were dry. In the heading period, the lighting is relatively sufficient, making the seed setting rate good, effective panicles, and fuller grains. The yield per mu is about 900 pounds, 100 pounds more than last year.” Cheng Chunbao said, except for the increase in rice production, this year The production of rapeseeds and peanuts was higher than last year and was considered a bumper year.

In other grain-producing counties, the increase in grain production is also achieved. On August 15th, in Pingding Township, Yujiang County, grain farmers Liu Fuyuan told reporters that compared to last year, the harvested early rice yielded more than 1,000 pounds per mu, which is 100 kilograms higher than last year. Not only does the output increase, the rice is also fuller, and the rice can be over 70 pounds of rice, but it has been very good to reach 60 pounds last year.

“All the species were planted in the second night and they are growing well. Due to the relatively perfect irrigation facilities and the lack of watering problems in the later stages, it is expected that late rice will also be productive.” Sun Tianxin, an old farmer who was elected to the National People’s Congress, said that .

Regardless of whether they were interviewed in Xinjian County or Yujiang County, many villagers invariably reflected that the output of early rice this year was indeed good, and they all increased production. What is the overall situation in our province? The reporter learned from the Provincial Department of Agriculture that the province’s early rice harvest was a full-fledged harvest and the highest yield was recorded in the province. Early rice planting area was 22.614 million mu, an increase of 148,000 mu, and the yield was 370 kg/mu. The total output was 8.35 billion kg, an increase of 800 million kg.

For the increase of early rice production, Liu Guozheng, deputy director of the Provincial Grain and Oil Crops Bureau, analyzed that the state raised the minimum purchase price of early rice, increased grain subsidies, increased the enthusiasm of grain farmers, and related supporting infrastructure has also improved. For rice itself, the weather this year is relatively suitable for its growth. The continuous drought in spring and summer has indeed led to the situation where seedlings cannot be inserted in some areas, but it is only local, and most of them are in the mountainous areas. In most areas, early rice is planted, and there are plenty of sunshine during the breeding period, long seedling period, and heading period. Therefore, this year's climate is conducive to high yield and early harvest of early rice.

According to Cheng Jin, director of the Provincial Bureau of Agriculture's Crop and Crops Bureau, feedback from the main citrus producing areas shows that this year's fruiting rate is very high, and the quality is also relatively good. Nanfeng orange and Gannan navel orange will all achieve great harvest. According to preliminary estimates, citrus production in the province will reach 3.5 million tons, breaking the historical high. The previous maximum production occurred in 2009, when it was 3.27 million tons. Last year, due to low temperature, rain and flood, the output fell below 3 million tons.

“In spite of rare spring and summer droughts in our province, the drought is mainly concentrated in the big rivers and lakes. The water level is too low. For fruit trees, it does not require too much rain. It is very important that the temperature is not high and the light is sufficient. The drought in the fruit-producing areas is not serious, and supplements from time to time have basically satisfied the water needed for the fruit trees. At the same time, the orchards newly developed three or four years ago have concentrated into the fruiting period this year and the area of ​​fruit production has increased.” Cheng Jin believes that this year The continuous drought in spring and summer and the drought and flood in June did not affect the growth of fruit trees and achieved a bumper harvest in the disaster year.

On August 1, at a meeting of the provincial director of agriculture, the meeting revealed that in the first half of the province, the total output of meat, eggs and milk was 1.696 million tons, 261,000 tons and 63,000 tons, respectively, an increase of 2% and 2.7% respectively. , 6.4%. The live pigs slaughtered 16.13 million heads, an increase of 1.1%. Aquatic product output was 0.948 million tons, an increase of 0.2%. The planting area of ​​economic crops is 13.68 million mu, an increase of 56 million mu. Among them, an area of ​​4.2 million mu of vegetables, an increase of 140,000 mu; cotton area of ​​1.28 million mu, an increase of 80,000 acres. Other economic crops such as tea, flowers, and Chinese herbal medicines also grew steadily. In general, this year's major grain, fruit and other agricultural products harvested in our province, and other agricultural products increase production in different degrees.

According to analysis by relevant experts of the Jiangxi Survey Corps, from the perspective of rising CPI this year, rising prices of food and housing are the two major driving forces, among which food prices have the highest influence. In order to stabilize food prices, the harvest of major agricultural products has an inhibitory effect, especially the increase in grain production such as rice and wheat. The stability of grain prices has affected other agricultural products. Jiangxi is one of the major provinces for rice production. It annually transfers large amounts of grain to other provinces and cities. With high yield of early rice, the price of rice naturally tends to be stable. However, due to the fact that the country once again raised the minimum purchase price this year, the price of rice is unlikely to be adjusted back. The pork price stabilized after reaching a new high and will fall back, which means that the end of the meat price increase cycle is approaching. On the whole, the high yields of our province's early rice, fruits, and rapeseed all added new chips to the stability of prices in our province and even the whole country in the second half of the year.

It is understood that since the beginning of the year, edible oil prices have been relatively stable. In early August, the reconciliation oil of a certain brand rose by 5%, driving other brands to increase their edible oil prices, but the overall increase was not significant, which was related to the high yield of oil crops to some extent. In our province, for example, the Department of Agriculture's Market Office had organized staff to investigate 21 base counties across the province. This year, rapeseed production reached 700,000 tons, an increase of 62,000 tons, an increase of 9.7%. Yield 86.2 kg, an increase of 8.4 kg, an increase of 10.8%. The total output and the yield per unit are relatively low, and the light is sufficient. The proper amount of rainwater is the main reason for the high yield of rapeseed.

According to monitoring, rapeseed prices have declined due to high yield of rapeseed. In the first week of August, the average wholesale price of rapeseed in our province was 4.72 yuan/kg, which was 1.67% lower than the same period in July and 0.42% lower than the beginning of the year. At the same time, bulk vegetable oil prices were relatively stable, only rising by nearly 8% from the beginning of the year. The high yield of rapeseed has caused a lack of motivation for some edible oils to rise.

Zhang Xiaoyu, deputy director of the Jiangxi Provincial Investigation Corps Consumer Price Division, said that in the food category, food has the largest weight, and its stable or falling price will prompt the entire price to stabilize or fall. Starting in the autumn, the agricultural products after the harvest will be listed one after another, which will further improve the relationship between supply and demand. In addition, price rises or falls are cyclical, and this round of price increases has continued for more than 20 months. A bumper grain harvest and a series of measures taken by the country to stabilize prices will help accelerate the transition from a rising cycle to a falling cycle.

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