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Chemicals blocks become a haven for stock markets
Since January 15th, the global financial markets have been shaken by the second wave of the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, causing a sharp decline in Chinese stock indices. From January 16th to 24th, the Chinese stock market fell nearly 14% over seven trading days. Amid this turmoil, chemical and petrochemical companies emerged as safe havens, with their stock prices showing resilience. According to the joint petrochemical index from Shanghai and Shenzhen, shares of chemical and petrochemical firms dropped by only about 4%. Some major players, such as Hubei Yihua, Red Sun, Salt Lake Potash, Yuanyuanxin Energy, Yuntianhua, and Xingfa Group, even hit new highs during this period.
This strong performance is closely tied to the evolving domestic and international economic environment. With a new global bull market in agricultural commodities, planting enthusiasm has surged worldwide. At the end of last year, China's Central Rural Work Conference discussed the "Several Opinions on Effectively Strengthening Agricultural Infrastructure and Further Promoting Agricultural Development for Increasing Farmers' Income (Discussion Draft)," signaling that the upcoming Central Document No. 1 will likely focus again on agriculture. This policy direction is expected to boost demand for fertilizers and pesticides, benefiting listed companies like Xinan Chemicals and Huaxing Chemicals, which produce glyphosate and herbicides. Upstream producers, such as Sanxia, which supply glycine, are also poised to gain from this trend. These stocks have shown strong defensive characteristics amid market volatility.
In addition, under the backdrop of global resource price revaluation, non-renewable resources like phosphate rock have attracted significant investor attention. Phosphate rock is a strategic and scarce resource. In 1980, the U.S. banned its exports and relied heavily on imports each year. China, although rich in phosphate reserves, faces increasing domestic demand due to rapid development in high-concentration fertilizer production and large-scale low-cost exports of high-grade ore. This has led to a tightening supply situation. The Chinese government has implemented measures to regulate phosphate rock mining, including the closure of small-scale mines for rectification, which is expected to gradually push up phosphate rock prices. This policy support will benefit listed companies involved in phosphate rock resources, helping to stabilize or even boost their stock prices.
Furthermore, the supply-demand gap in the domestic potash market is expected to persist, creating room for further price increases. Salt Lake Potash benefits from its natural resource monopoly and clear growth prospects, making it an attractive investment. Yuntianhua, with its strong pricing power, has also seen its share price reach new highs. Overall, these sectors demonstrate resilience and potential in the current volatile market environment.